Tiptoeing Through The Rezoning
Saint John's piecemeal approach to industrial development is a weird way to build a provincial economy
Sometime late last year, New Brunswick lost out on a billion-dollar deal.
A major car company had been close to building an EV battery plant, rumoured to be its largest in North America, here on Canada’s East Coast.
But the markets turned, the company's Q4 EV sales were softer than anticipated, and the deal was shelved indefinitely. It might be back once EV sales start to pick up again, or it might not.
That’s the reality of investment attraction; market need, production costs and timing must align for big projects to come to town.
In Atlantic Canada, land of vast resources and sparse population, opportunity doesn’t commonly knock on our door, let alone push it open, as it is right now.
Possible investments now stand on New Brunswick’s doorstep not because of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ‘build, baby, build’ war cry, nor because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, although both add weight to the East Coast’s pitch.
The simple fact is that the price of developing New Brunswick’s swampy, rocky coastline makes commercial sense at this particular point in time. The cost per hectare, which includes not only the development of the land but also connecting utilities and building transportation infrastructure, is worth the investment, for now.
For much of 2024, that price seemed right for an EV battery plant, until it wasn’t, but here’s what’s different about this investment attraction story.
That car company isn’t the only large corporation knocking at New Brunswick’s door.
A hydrogen energy producer is also in the mix, a new addition to the regional industry, which is dominated by Irving Oil, currently the largest producer in Atlantic Canada.
As we’ve already reported, additional investments in New Brunswick include:
· Dubai-based DP World, which operates New Brunswick’s largest shipping container terminal under the terms of a 30-year lease that expires in 2047, the largest private sector investment in port infrastructure in decades;
· Georgia-based Americold Realty Trust, which will invest $75-80 million in a new cold storage facility, its first Canadian import-export hub;
· Gemini Corporation, the new vessel-sharing alliance launched by Danish shipper Maersk and German shipper Hapag-Lloyd, the second and third largest shipping companies in the world that is now dropping anchor in New Brunswick;
· Calgary-based CPKC, the transnational railway company that owns Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, has added New Brunswick to its hub of North American trade routes that include Mexico;
· Canadian National Railway is looking to increase trans-Canadian shipments to and from New Brunswick; and,
· Jacksonville, Florida’s CSX Transportation is now moving freight in and out of New Brunswick, with connections to the American Midwest even amidst tariff uncertainty.
Throw in J.D. Irving, Limited’s $1.1 billion upgrade to its existing pulp and paper mill, and it’s likely New Brunswick could receive over $2 billion in private and public sector investment related to the list above.
However, that’s not how New Brunswickers read or interpret this story.
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Now back to the story…
When New Brunswickers hear or read about all this increased shipping and trade activity, it’s framed as a Saint John story because it’s anchored to the city’s port.
No doubt, if Premier Susan Holt is successful in driving federal defence spending to CFB Gagetown, it’ll be a Fredericton story, just as the Port of Belledune’s move to become a green energy hub is a northern New Brunswick story.
And, as always, whatever is going on in Moncton will continue to be a Moncton story.
Which is why, as a trade corridor begins to take shape in and around Port Saint John, there is little fanfare or planning that other provinces would normally apply to this level of investment; instead, it is treated as individual components, seemingly unattached to a bigger agenda.
We saw this play out earlier this week at another raucous Saint John Common Council meeting where those opposed to the planned expansion of the industrial park in Lorneville spoke until 10 p.m. That’s when Mayor Donna Reardon adjourned the meeting and scheduled a third public hearing for June 3rd.
The debate about the Spruce Lake Industrial Park is now in its tenth month, following a similar pattern to the eight-month argument over J.D. Irving’s desire to rezone a portion of a community park it owns to install a 500-spot parking lot for contractors.
These are the public skirmishes, but inside City Hall, staff have been trying to figure out how to balance industrial development with community needs, such as noise and traffic problems, for at least two years. This is according to a batch of internal emails shared with me courtesy of a Request for Information via the Right to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (RTIPPA).
Back in April 2023, Saint John’s Transportation and Public Works Commissioner Michael Hugenholtz wrote to Chief Administrative Officer Brent McGovern about concerns he had regarding the project’s increased rail traffic in and out of the Port.
“We stressed the need for the Province to take a leadership role in working with the various stakeholders to proactively mitigate any impacts on the community. DTI [Department of Transportation and Infrastructure] indicated that they would be at the table for those conversations as regulator but suggested that some other branch of the Provincial government should take the lead. When pressed, they suggested that it should be Local Government.”
Whether conversations continued is unclear, but it appears from additional emails that little progress was made on city staff concerns or the request for provincial leadership on Saint John’s development challenges.
Soon after J.D. Irving announced its NextGen project in May 2024, Saint John Public Works Director Tim O’Reilly wrote: “My most significant concern is I have virtually no insights into the cumulative impacts of this proposed industrial development/expansion and others in the area from a vehicular or train traffic volume to truly understand and support the number of infrastructure improvements needed and the impact to the community.
“I don’t have confidence the background volume estimates in the attached are justified. Between continued growth at the Intermodal Terminal on Dever Road, the Port expansion, this project and potential other projects, what is the true impact and improvements needed?”
Great question, Tim.
Why, a year after he posed this question, do we still not know?
Why are Saint John residents forced to trade gossip and supposition gleaned from web searches, media releases and RTI requests to try to piece together on their own the changes that are now beginning to happen in the city?
Local changes that, if successful, will impact and shape the provincial economy.
Now here’s the thing: the private sector is going to do what it’s going to do.
If it sees an opportunity, it will seize it, because that’s what private industry is supposed to do.
The speed and scope of opportunity that has kicked open the door in Saint John is exciting from an economic perspective, but overwhelming to a municipal government trying to balance the needs of local residents with business expansion.
It should not and cannot do this alone.
Public leadership from the Government of New Brunswick is required, with an assist from the Government of Canada.
This is not simply financial support – although that is required.
What Saint John, and by extension New Brunswick, desperately needs is a strong, provincial voice to articulate a One New Brunswick vision and plan, to support the municipalities in its local application, and to lead.
We are the actual home of Canada’s One Economy Minister Dominic LeBlanc.
What a shame if New Brunswick remains a patchwork of local economies while the rest of the country moves as one.
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A great piece Lisa; well done!